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HAVE WE REACHED THE MARKET BOTTOM?

Forsale

The plunge in Shore-area real estate values that’s been underway for almost two years is showing signs of abating, today’s Asbury Park Press reports.

From the story:

Home prices in the area that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties were essentially flat in the first quarter of 2008, declining by 0.6 percent from the same period the year before, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

The median sale price for an existing single-family home in Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was $361,200, down $2,300, from $363,500 in the same quarter in 2007, the association said. The median means that half the homes in the area sold for more and half sold for less.

Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bank, said the decline is “relatively modest, to say the least.”

According to Press business reporter David Willis, prices continued to drop across most of New Jersey, though the areas around Trenton and Atlantic City actually recorded price increases.

But in our area, ’short sales’ — deals in which the house goes for less than the mortgage owed, often with an agreement that the lender will eat the loss — appear to be common. Willis quotes one real estate broker as saying that up to 20 percent of his transactions are now short sales.

Meantime, prospective buyers continue to be guarded.

Little Silver resident Bruce Jennings has had his four-bedroom house at 175 Riverview Ave. on the market since December. He started by asking $489,000. He has reduced it several times to its current price: $449,000.

Prospective buyers have attended open houses, but, so far, no serious offers have come in, he said.

“There seems to be people going around, kicking the tires, but since the market has been declining, they are offering very, very low numbers to try to “steal’ one as opposed to coming in with comparable sales,” said Jennings, a senior loan officer at Allstate Mortgage in West Long Branch.

The economy may be one reason his home has not sold yet, he said. “My house would be perfect for a young couple, or young couple and a child, but they don’t want to take on the financial obligation of a house right now because they are afraid of the economy.”

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  • 175 Riverview has not really "been on the market since December". Bruce didn't have it listed for sale, but just had it overpriced with a For Sale by Owner sign out front and now has it on the market in a discount For Sale by Owner service that you show it yourself.

    I'm a marketing rep and I know enough to get a professional. Nowadays you need to really market it, not put a sign out and think that's going to do it. Bad example - overpriced doesn't sell in any market, it is not a symptom of this market. It was hard enough to get our well priced house sold with top exposure on hundreds of web sites, never mind a do it yourselfer with an ad on craigslist.

    This is not meant as criticism of Bruce, just that this is a poor example to illustrate your story.

    Posted by: Riverview Neighbor on May 14, 2008 at 4:15 pm | Permalink
  • 175 Riverview has not really "been on the market since December". Bruce didn't have it listed for sale, but just had it overpriced with a For Sale by Owner sign out front and now has it on the market in a discount For Sale by Owner service that you show it yourself.

    I'm a marketing rep and I know enough to get a professional. Nowadays you need to really market it, not put a sign out and think that's going to do it. Bad example - overpriced doesn't sell in any market, it is not a symptom of this market. It was hard enough to get our well priced house sold with top exposure on hundreds of web sites, never mind a do it yourselfer with an ad on craigslist.

    This is not meant as criticism of Bruce, just that this is a poor example to illustrate your story.

    Posted by: Riverview Neighbor on May 14, 2008 at 4:16 pm | Permalink
  • The NAR has seen more bottoms in the last two years than a free clinic proctologist. And there's another bottom-related metaphor I'm thinking of which describes what comes out of NAR mouthpieces (e.g., L. Yun).

    Let's see:

    * Some guy in LS has lowered his asking price over and over but still can't sell.

    * Short sales are common if not on the rise.

    Conclusion:

    * RE is stabilizing.

    A Soviet Politburo member would blush at this logic.

    Posted by: BLB on May 14, 2008 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
  • Foreclosures in Monmouth County are on the rise. Take a look at the Monmouth County Sheriff's Sale website (updated weekly)- every week the list gets longer. Homes across the spectrum- Keansburg all the way to Rumson. And it appears that the crown jewel of Navesink River Road is in preforeclosure. All this supply will come to the market eventually, sending prices lower.

    Posted by: IHMS on May 14, 2008 at 9:21 pm | Permalink
  • Yea, the NAR has almost zero credibility - to them it's always a good time to buy. When asking prices come back in line with salaries, then we will have found a bottom, until then, expect more bloodshed.

    Posted by: JBJB on May 15, 2008 at 8:34 am | Permalink
  • Speaking of the Monmouth County Sheriff's Office, does anyone else find it a little offensive that the following is printed in large decals on the back of sheriff office vehicles:

    http://www.sheriffguadagno.org

    Ummm… How 'bout just:

    http://www.visitmonmouth.com/sheriff

    The latter is where one is automatically directed when entering the former, so I'm left with the conclusion that this is just political advertising on our dime.

    Not right Kim.

    Posted by: Rosemary on May 15, 2008 at 8:52 am | Permalink
  • Correction: it's .com, not .org

    Wow, I think that's even worse!

    Posted by: Rosemary on May 15, 2008 at 8:54 am | Permalink
  • almost 1/2 a mil for a house for a YOUNG couple or maybe a YOUNG couple and a child…??? just how much money do you need to handle that kind of mortgage? what young couple can afford that? mom and dad can't get 1/2 mil out of their own home equity anymore.. sorry young couples, mom and dad won't be able to buy you the house. and that folks, is the long and short of it. hey mr. jennings…. SERIOUSLY lower the price and you'll sell.

    Posted by: gabby weiss on May 16, 2008 at 12:00 am | Permalink

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