VIRUS UPDATE: ‘WORST CASE’ REVISED DOWN

  red bank social distancing 041420Observing social-distancing recommendations, well-spaced customers wait their turns to be admitted to the Bank of America branch on Broad Street in Red Bank Tuesday morning. (Photo by John T. Ward. Click to enlarge.)

By JOHN T. WARD

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Three-hundred-sixty-five more New Jerseyans have died as a result of COVID-19, the largest increase reported in the month-old crisis, Governor Phil Murphy reported Tuesday.

The spike was reported as administration officials unveiled a dramatically improved worst-case scenario in coming weeks, based on data projections.

The death toll in the crisis climbed to 2,805, including another 18 in Monmouth County, which has seen 145, according to the state health department’s COVID-19 online database.

The previous one-day record loss of life in the pandemic was 275, reported last Wednesday.

An unknown number of the latest deaths may have occurred “sometime over the past number of days” and only reached state health officials in the last 24 hours, Murphy said at his daily briefing.

Twenty-seven of the most recent deaths were of residents of longterm care facilities, said state health Commissioner Judy Persichilli.

The state’s hospitalized COVID-19 patient total rose 304, to 8,185, a four-percent increase, she said.

Of the hospitalized patients, 2,051 were in critical care or intensive care beds, up 65 from Monday, and 1,626 of them, or about 85 percent, were breathing on ventilators, up 15. Late last week, about 97 percent ICU patients required ventilators, Persichilli said, who has predicted that every ICU patient may need a ventilator when the surge hits.

But responding to a reporter’s question, Persichilli said a revised “worst-case” projection for the peak of the surge now indicates 15,922 hospitalizations statewide, 3,821 ICU beds used and 3,503 patients on ventilators.

Just 24 hours earlier, the modeling point to a peak of about 36,000 hospitalizations, with 6,000 patients needing ventilators, Persichilli said Monday.

If the newer forecast pans out, “I think our hospitals are very prepared” to absorb the surge, she said. Still, she cautioned hospitals still need another 950 traditional ventilators, as opposed to repurposed anesthesia machines, in order to do so.

“And all this will change tomorrow,” she said of the projection, which is in continual flux.

Here are the latest statewide COVID-19 figures:

Deaths in the monthlong pandemic: 2,805, up 365 from Monday’s update

Positive tests: 68,824, up 4,059

Patients in hospitals: 8,185, up 304

Patients in intensive/critical care: 2,051, up 65

Patients on ventilators: 1,626, up 15

Patients discharged in preceding 24 hours: 514, down 42

Monmouth County’s COVID-19 caseload grew to 4,003, up 128.

A town-by-town count of patients is below:

  • Aberdeen: 110
  • Allenhurst: 1
  • Allentown: 3
  • Asbury Park: 77
  • Atlantic Highlands: 14
  • Avon-by-the-Sea: 9
  • Belmar: 8
  • Bradley Beach: 15
  • Brielle: 20
  • Colts Neck: 48
  • Deal: 22
  • Eatontown: 119
  • Englishtown: 15
  • Fair Haven: 17, up 2 from Monday
  • Farmingdale: 9
  • Freehold Borough: 121
  • Freehold Township: 338
  • Hazlet: 153
  • Highlands: 17
  • Holmdel: 130
  • Howell: 346
  • Interlaken: 1
  • Keansburg: 60
  • Keyport: 49
  • Lake Como: 12
  • Little Silver: 25, up 1
  • Loch Arbour: 1
  • Long Branch: 222
  • Manalapan: 308
  • Manasquan: 22
  • Marlboro: 285
  • Matawan: 102
  • Middletown: 325
  • Millstone: 46
  • Monmouth Beach: 14
  • Neptune City: 23
  • Neptune Township: 211
  • Ocean: 169
  • Oceanport: 40
  • Red Bank: 82, up 4
  • Roosevelt: 2
  • Rumson: 24
  • Sea Bright: 7
  • Sea Girt: 9
  • Shrewsbury Borough: 23
  • Shrewsbury Township: 5
  • Spring Lake: 6
  • Spring Lake Heights: 15
  • Tinton Falls: 72
  • Union Beach: 26
  • Upper Freehold: 27
  • Wall: 137
  • West Long Branch: 46
  • Unknown: 2